What is the current probability for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?"?

The contested Polymarket outcomes for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" are Donald Tusk 89%, Friedrich Merz 37%, Ursula von der Leyen 36% — 6 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/770175. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event15 outcomes

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027

vol cum

$425.5k

vol 24h

$23.9k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 15

UkraineGeopolitics

marketselected outcome

António Costa

rank #1 · resolved: yes

Ukraine

100¢

vol cum

$38.6k

vol 24h

spread

0.00

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

timeline

opened · Jul 30, 2026closedresolved · Aug 24, 2026

António Costa · prices over time

−24h

now

no price history yet

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

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