What is the current probability for "Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?": Ukraine 70%, Russia 37%, Kharkiv uninhabitable (because of nuclear strike for example) on Dec 31, 2030 2% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2030.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/rQUXSV7T60sOGijxTA1w. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event3 outcomes

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

·World·ends Dec 31, 2030

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Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, lies in the northeastern part of the country and serves as the administrative center of Kharkiv Oblast. Founded in 1654, it has evolved into a significant hub for industry, trade, and Ukrainian culture within the historic region of Sloboda Ukraine. During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kharkiv became a strategic focal point due to its proximity to the Russian border, experiencing battles and bombardments that highlighted its importance in the broader geopolitical landscape. The city's resilience and response to the conflict have underscored its critical role in Ukraine's defense and national identity. under what control will it be on December 31, 2030?

ukraine-counteroffensiveukraine

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Ukraine

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Ukraine

70¢

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