What is the current probability for "US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?"?

"Yes" is currently 9% on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/79228. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

·Politics

United StatesRussiaUkraine

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$134.8k

vol 24h

$20.3k

spread

0.02

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 9¢

No 91¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.

PoliticsGeopoliticsWorldUkraine

timeline

opened · Nov 13, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

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