What is the current probability for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?": 4.4-4.6m sq km 99%, 4.6-4.8m sq km 1%, <4m sq km 0% (top 3 of 7 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Oct 2, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/86426. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

pasttrade on Polymarket

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event7 outcomes

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Q: When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Oct 2, 2026.

Q: How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Q: Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/86426. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

·Climate and Weather·ends Oct 2, 2026

vol cum

$105k

vol 24h

$11.8k

outcomes

ends

Oct 2, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 7

WeatherclimateClimate Change

marketselected outcome

4.4-4.6m sq km

rank #1

99¢

▲ 0.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$6.8k

vol 24h

$480

spread

0.02

ends

Oct 1, 2026

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

timeline

opened · Nov 20, 2025closedresolved · Oct 1, 2026

4.4-4.6m sq km · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history