Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jul 1, 2027
As of 08:37 UTC on 9 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?” on Polymarket are “March 31, 2027” at 78% (+11pp in 24h) and “June 30, 2027?” at 76% (-6pp in 24h). The event has $1k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi and Limitless.
vol cum
$53.8k
vol 24h
$1k
outcomes
2
ends
Jul 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
FDATechCancerModernaSciencevaccine
marketselected outcome
March 31, 2027
rank #1
United States
78¢
▲ 11.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$4.8k
vol 24h
$437
spread
0.01
ends
Apr 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.