What is the current probability for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner"?

Current Polymarket odds for "AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner": Jay Feely 89%, Joseph Chaplik 12%, Paul Reevs 0% (top 3 of 15 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/4/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/90415. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event15 outcomes

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

·Politics·ends Aug 4, 2026

vol cum

$447.1k

vol 24h

$574

outcomes

ends

Aug 4, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 15

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on July 21, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

primary electionsHouse PrimaryRepublican PrimaryArizona PrimaryJuly 21 PrimariesUS ElectionPoliticsElections

marketselected outcome

Jay Feely

rank #1

United States

89¢

▲ 0.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$16.6k

vol 24h

$76

spread

0.02

ends

Aug 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Nov 25, 2025opencloses · Aug 4, 2026

Jay Feely · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history