What is the current probability for "Venezuela leader end of 2026?"?

The contested Predict outcomes for "Venezuela leader end of 2026?" are Nicolás Maduro 82%, Delcy Rodríguez 10%, María Corina Machado 5% — 2 of 16 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from predict's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/predict/241116. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event16 outcomes

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

·Politics·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$16.4k

vol 24h

$15.6k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 16

PoliticsGlobal

marketselected outcome

Dan Caine

rank #1

Venezuela

100¢

▼ 0.1pp

24h change

vol cum

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

timeline

opened · Jul 25, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

Dan Caine · prices over time

−24h

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