What is the current probability for "California Governor winner?"?

Current Gemini odds for "California Governor winner?": Xavier Becerra 96%, Steve Hilton 6%, Matt Mahan 0% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/4/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from gemini's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/gemini/3006. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Gemini

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event9 outcomes

California Governor winner?

·Politics·ends Nov 4, 2026

vol cum

$83.4k

vol 24h

$2k

outcomes

ends

Nov 4, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 9

Who will win the California gubernatorial election in 2026?

Governor

marketselected outcome

Xavier Becerra

rank #1

United States

96¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

—

vol 24h

—

spread

0.01

ends

Nov 4, 2026

If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the California Secretary of State. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract terms & conditions.

timeline

opened · May 6, 2026opencloses · Nov 4, 2026

Xavier Becerra · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history