What is the current probability for "California Governor Election Winner"?

Current Predict odds for "California Governor Election Winner": Xavier Becerra 95%, Katie Porter 10%, Steve Hilton 3% (top 3 of 23 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Nov 3, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from predict's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/predict/241131. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Predict

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event23 outcomes

California Governor Election Winner

·Politics·ends Nov 3, 2026

vol cum

$5.1M

vol 24h

$68.6k

outcomes

ends

Nov 3, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 23

PoliticsElections

marketselected outcome

Xavier Becerra

rank #1

United States

95¢

▼ 0.3pp

24h change

vol cum

$113.2k

vol 24h

$1k

spread

0.00

ends

Nov 3, 2026

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

timeline

opened · Jul 25, 2026opencloses · Nov 3, 2026

Xavier Becerra · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history