What is the current probability for "California Governor Election Winner"?

The contested Predict outcomes for "California Governor Election Winner" are Xavier Becerra 92%, Alex Padilla 55%, Katie Porter 55% — 7 of 23 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/3/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from predict's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/predict/241131. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event23 outcomes

California Governor Election Winner

·Politics·ends Nov 3, 2026

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PoliticsElections

marketselected outcome

Leo Zacky

rank #1

United States

100¢

▼ 0.1pp

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This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

timeline

opened · Jul 25, 2026opencloses · Nov 3, 2026

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