Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)" are Virginia 75%, Oregon 69%, Louisiana 60% — 2 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 8/7/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXDROUGHTLEVEL-26JULLD4. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

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