Question 1

What is the current probability for "US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026" are Above 8% 90%, Above 3% 75%, Above 4% 75% — 2 of 11 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/5/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026

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