What is the current probability for "Will FERC move to break up PJM in 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 33% on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/9/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXFERCPJM-26JUL. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will FERC move to break up PJM in 2026?

·Politics

United States

33%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$537

vol 24h

spread

0.06

ends

Jan 9, 2027

Yes 33¢

No 67¢

If the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) announces a decision to pursue the division of PJM Interconnection into two or more independently governed regional grid operators before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The decision must be adopted by the Commission, identify division as FERC’s proposed course of action, and direct PJM, Commission staff, or stakeholders to develop or submit a breakup plan. Final approval and implementation are not required. Requests for comment, proceedings that merely consider division, and statements by individual commissioners do not qualify.

timeline

opened · Jul 22, 2026opencloses · Jan 9, 2027

Will FERC move to break up PJM in 2026?

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Will FERC move to break up PJM in 2026?

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