France credit rating downgrade in 2026?
As of 18:54 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “France credit rating downgrade in 2026?” at 31% (-54pp in 24h). The market has $164 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold and Opinion.
If a downgrade by Moody’s, S&P, or Fitch, of France’s long-term foreign-currency sovereign issuer rating is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A qualifying downgrade is a reduction of at least one notch in France’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating (Moody’s), sovereign credit rating (S&P), or Issuer Default Rating (Fitch), relative to that agency’s immediately preceding rating. Both the downgrade announcement and confirmation by at least one of the Source Agencies must occur during the market period. Scheduled and unscheduled downgrades count; a subsequent upgrade does not negate a downgrade. Outlook changes, watch/review placements, withdrawals, and changes solely to short-term or individual debt-instrument ratings do not count. Ratings of entities other than the Republic of France are excluded.
