As of 21:08 UTC on 10 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?” on Polymarket are “November 30” at 71% (+5pp in 24h) and “October 31” at 55% (+12pp in 24h). The event has $2.7k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Limitless and Predict.
vol cum
$2.8k
vol 24h
$2.7k
outcomes
2
ends
Dec 1, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
EuropeFranceEconomy
marketselected outcome
November 30
rank #1
France
N
71¢
▲ 4.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$1.6k
vol 24h
$1.5k
spread
0.09
ends
Dec 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve "Yes." A downgrade by both agencies is not required.
For purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies.
A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify.
Rating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings), together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page (https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.