Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
Yes 44% (+6pp in 24h) on Kalshi as of 16:56 UTC on 13 Nov 2026 for “Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?”. The market has $19.2k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Myriad, Predict and Manifold.
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Examples that would resolve the market to Yes: OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Dec 12, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency" Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
