Government Shutdown Odds
21events
Live odds on the next US government shutdown and the budget fights around it — continuing resolutions, reconciliation bills, the filibuster and the debt ceiling. Kalshi asks whether the government is shut down on the date; Polymarket whether a shutdown begins by it.
consensus
US government shutdown by 12 December 2026 · platforms disagree by 2pp⚑ same question · every platform| outcome |  Kalshi |  Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 39% | 37% |
US government shutdown by 12 December 2026: the price in percent on each platform that lists it, as of 14:15 UTC on 13 Nov 2026. The gap is where the markets disagree.
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
GSkalshi·YesHMkalshi·1
polymarket·December 31WTkalshi·Before Jan 1, 2030WWkalshi·Lisa MurkowskiWTkalshi·Before Jan 1, 2029GSkalshi·YesHMkalshi·At least 1WTkalshi·Before Jan 1, 2029WWkalshi·Before Jan 1, 2027HMkalshi·2
polymarket·December 31
Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
kalshi·Yes39¢
· 0.0pp
$16.2k
vol 24h
How many reconciliation bills will become law from Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi·181¢
▲ 3.0pp
$11.5k
vol 24h
Government shutdown by...?
polymarket·December 3143¢
▲ 0.5pp
$10.2k
vol 24h
Will the filibuster be weakened?
kalshi·Before Jan 1, 203067¢
· 0.0pp
$629
vol 24h
Who will be Ranking Member of Senate Appropriations?
kalshi·Lisa Murkowski87¢
▼ 9.0pp
$524
vol 24h
Will the Senate pass legislation using a talking filibuster?
kalshi·Before Jan 1, 202924¢
· 0.0pp
$500
vol 24h
Government shutdown in 2027?
kalshi·Yes77¢
▲ 2.0pp
$445
vol 24h
How many government shutdowns will there be before 2028?
kalshi·At least 175¢
▲ 3.0pp
$323
vol 24h
Will the filibuster be abolished?
kalshi·Before Jan 1, 202914¢
▲ 14.0pp
$301
vol 24h
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
kalshi·Before Jan 1, 202718¢
· 0.0pp
$247
vol 24h
How many government shutdowns in 2026?
kalshi·257¢
▼ 5.0pp
$202
vol 24h
Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?
polymarket·December 3117¢
▼ 1.0pp
$96
vol 24h
kalshiWill the filibuster be abolished?
Before Jan 1, 2029
14¢▲ 14.0pp
kalshiWho will be Ranking Member of Senate Appropriations?
Lisa Murkowski
87¢▼ 9.0pp
kalshiHow many government shutdowns in 2026?
2
57¢▼ 5.0pp
kalshiHow many reconciliation bills will become law from Nov 25, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026?
1
81¢▲ 3.0pp