Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?

Kalshi·Science and Technology

As of 02:44 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?” at 55% (+1pp in 24h). The market has $256 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket and Manifold.

If a major meteor (10 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater) hits Earth before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.