Question 1

What is the current probability for "Arkansas's 3rd District margin of victory"?

Accepted Answer

Current Kalshi odds for "Arkansas's 3rd District margin of victory": Republicans, 10+ pts 92%, Republicans, 13+ pts 89%, Republicans, 16+ pts 83% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/3/2027.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXMIDTERMMOV-AR03R. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Arkansas's 3rd District margin of victory

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