p|datav0.1news178
HomeMarketsHubsNews178MapMonitor
menu
HomeMarketsHubsNews178MapMonitor
theme
p|data·synced:Polymarket—Kalshi—Manifold—Predict—Myriad—Opinion—Limitless—Gemini—
hubsaboutmethodologyagentsdocsx© 2026
markets·Science and Technology
opentrade on Kalshi ↗
event4 outcomes

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Kalshi·Science and Technology·ends Jan 8, 2040
W
vol cum
$31.2k
vol 24h
$1.1k
outcomes
4
ends
Jan 8, 2040
outcomesclick to inspect →
marketselected outcome
Before 2040
rank #1
B
61¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$1.3k
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.05
ends
Jan 8, 2040

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline
opened · Aug 14, 2025opencloses · Jan 8, 2040
prices over time · Before 2040 highlighted
−24h
now
volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect
no volume history

similar markets

suggested by pdata
Manifoldmanifold
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
yes39¢· 0.0pp
M0 24h · 1 market
Polymarketpolymarket
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?
yes2¢▼ 7.0pp
$37 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
Is the brain quantum?
yes18¢· 0.0pp
M0 24h · 1 market
Polymarketpolymarket
How far ahead of Google’s quantum benchmark will ECDSA.fail get by June 30?
40%+95¢▲ 10.5pp50%+54¢▲ 6.5pp
$520 24h · 2 markets
Manifoldmanifold
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
yes95¢· 0.0pp
M0 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
yes30¢· 0.0pp
M0 24h · 1 market