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event4 outcomes

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Kalshi·Science and Technology·ends Jan 8, 2040
vol cum
$41.3k
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
4
ends
Jan 8, 2040
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Before 2040
rank #1
64¢
vol cum
$2.1k
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.04
ends
Jan 8, 2040

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

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opened · Aug 14, 2025opencloses · Jan 8, 2040
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