What is the current probability for "Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?"?

"Yes" is currently 7% (-1pp in the last 24h) on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Nov 3, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXRETIREMM-26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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marketsingle market

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?

·Politics

United States

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$3.1M

vol 24h

$29.9k

spread

0.00

ends

Nov 3, 2026

Yes 7¢

No 93¢

If Mitch McConnell has resigned, retired, or otherwise voluntarily stepped down from their Congressional office, or announced their intent to resign, retire, or otherwise voluntarily step down from their office prematurely, after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Dec 21, 2024opencloses · Nov 3, 2026

Before election day 2026 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history