marketsingle market
Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
United States
30%
▲ 5.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$1k
vol 24h
$6
spread
0.06
ends
Jan 8, 2033
Yes 30¢
No 70¢
If the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
timeline
opened · Jun 9, 2026opencloses · Jan 8, 2033