If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
As of 17:03 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?” at 9%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion and Predict.
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A. If Trump does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No. I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.) Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation. Compare: (https://manifold.markets/embed/PeterF/if-harris-wins-will-the-us-enter-a?r=UGV0ZXJG)
