Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
As of 18:19 UTC on 20 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?” at 36%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term. A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This will be at any time during Trump's term, so if the two quarter or 6 months occurs at any time up to January 20, 2029. Estimates and NBER declarations can lag up to a year, so if it doesn't occur beforehand and there is any possibility or debate of it occurring at the end of the term, will allow for up to a year after inauguration for declaration. If any estimates are revised, the initial ones are what will count (so we don't have to adjust payouts). Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that BEA data will be considered the "official" source for GDP estimates. Update 2025-12-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Trump's second term is defined as: Ending early if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 for any reason Ending on January 20, 2029 even if Trump somehow stays in power beyond that date (as he would no longer be in his "second term")
