Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
As of 23:23 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?” at 23%. The market has no Kalshi-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
If the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure after Issuance and before Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
“Blocks” means that USPS refuses to accept, returns, holds, or materially delays ballot mail because of voter-list, barcode, certification, portal-submission, or similar election-specific requirements imposed pursuant to the covered measure. The threshold may be aggregated across incidents, but each ballot counts only once; warnings, promptly corrected interruptions, and ordinary postal problems unrelated to the covered measure do not qualify. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
