Will any state submit ballot-mail data to USPS?
As of 20:59 UTC on 20 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will any state submit ballot-mail data to USPS?” at 20% (+7pp in 24h). The market has $5 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Manifold and Polymarket.
If a completed submission by any of the 50 states of federal ballot-mail data through the USPS Federal Ballot Mail Portal is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency that A) explicitly states a qualifying state submission was completed, B) is based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) is presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. State means one of the 50 states. A qualifying submission requires a state or its authorized designee to complete the transfer of federal ballot-mail data through the Federal Ballot Mail Portal. Account creation, portal familiarization, design communication, optional notice, intent, planning, and a failed or incomplete upload do NOT qualify. A nonpublic portal record without a qualifying Source Agency report does NOT qualify.
