Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?
This market resolves YES if the initial GPT-5 model, when released by OpenAI, was trained with over 1 trillion parameters, otherwise it will resolve NO. If OpenAI ceases to exist, publicly confirms there will not be a GPT-5, or it hasn't been released by 2030, this market resolves NA. If OpenAI is acquired or merges, "OpenAI" refers to the new company. "Initial GPT-5 model" refers to the first release of GPT-5 by OpenAI, not including subsequent updates, variants, or distillations: Distillations: If GPT-5 has variants that are distilled into having fewer parameters, these do not affect the market resolution. Subsequent variants: If new variants in the GPT-5 series are trained with more parameters after the initial release, these do not count toward the resolution. Naming: GPT-5 must be publicly recognized as such by OpenAI. If it is called "GPT-5" internally, but has a public name like GPT-4.5, it doesn't count. If OpenAI trains multiple GPT-5 variants but staggers their releases, any of them is acceptable as long as they are announced together. Confirmation of the number of parameters in the initial GPT-5 model must come from an official source, such as: OpenAI or Microsoft Current or former executives of OpenAI or Microsoft Current or former employees of OpenAI or Microsoft directly involved in the development of GPT-5 A journalist can serve as an acceptable proxy for an official source, provided that: The information clearly originates from an official source. The information is not based on rumors or unofficial statements.
