Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?
Maxim Lott wrote a substack post about giving GPT-4 two IQ tests (Norway's Mensa test and Sweden's Mensa test). In both tests GPT-4 performed below the minimum scores these tests could accurately measure, which are 85 for Norway's and 75 for Sweden's respectively. This market will resolve "Yes" if, in a similar future assessment conducted by Maxim Lott, GPT-5 achieves an IQ score of at least 100. Conversely, it will settle as "No" if GPT-5 scores below 100. If no such test is carried out within six months following GPT-5's public release, the market will resolve as "N/A". The test has to be executed by Maxim Lott to count. For the purposes of this market, "public release" is defined as the point at which the model becomes accessible to the general public, excluding any closed beta phases. The determination of the public release date of GPT-5 will rely on my best judgement.
