event6 outcomes

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 04:04 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 6 markets in “Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?” on Polymarket are “45%+” at 59% (+6pp in 24h), “42%+” at 55% (-6pp in 24h) and “50%+” at 36% (-1pp in 24h). The event has $808 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?” on Kalshi, an event with 9 outcomes. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Opinion.

vol cum

$166.2k

vol 24h

$808

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 6

AITechSpaceXAIAI Benchmarks

marketselected outcome

45%+

rank #1

59¢

▲ 6.2pp

24h change

vol cum

$65.7k

vol 24h

$428

spread

0.10

ends

Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

timeline

opened · Jul 23, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

45%+ · prices over time

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