Do LLMs experience qualia?
Asking clarifying questions is encouraged. I will attempt to resolve objectively. YES if there is a reasonable amount of evidence that LLMs experience qualia, NO if there is a reasonable amount of evidence that LLMs do not experience qualia. If some LLMs experience qualia and others do not, the question will resolve YES. Qualia can be any sort of qualia (perception of color, emotion, or even something humans cannot experience). Resolution does not require absolute proof, but reasonable evidence. For example, the endosymbiosis theory of mitochondria origin would resolve YES. Panspermia or mammalian group selection would not resolve (at the present moment). Any LLM shown to experience qualia counts. If some LLMs experience qualia and others do not, the question will resolve YES. AlphaZero would not count as an LLM. Reasoning models and large concept models would count as LLMs. Update 2025-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that they will not resolve this market based on consensus alone; it will be only one of multiple aspects they assess. Update 2025-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the definition of an LLM for this market: The presence of a transformer architecture is not sufficient on its own for a future AI to count as an LLM. An AI with a Llama-style architecture trained only on fMRI data would not count. An AI with a recognizable LLM architecture that is simply larger or uses a different optimizer would count. Update 2025-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market could resolve YES based on an AI developed in the future, even if it is proven that no LLM existing today has qualia. Such an AI would need to be recognizable as an LLM by today's understanding. Update 2025-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a hypothetical question about whether other humans experience qualia, the creator stated it would resolve YES. Their reasoning was based on a combination of factors including: Shared biological architecture Signaling of qualia Universal acceptance Update 2025-07-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their standard for 'reasonable evidence': Resolution will be based on a convergence of evidence for or against LLM qualia. The threshold could be met when explaining all the evidence away becomes a notably less parsimonious explanation than simply accepting the conclusion (either YES or NO). Update 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that the market will not resolve YES based on a model's claim to have qualia as the sole piece of evidence. This is true even if the claim is repeated and unprompted. Update 2025-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market is about qualia, not consciousness. The market would resolve YES if an LLM were found to experience qualia even without being considered conscious. Update 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve as soon as the evidence criteria are met, which could be at any time before or after the close date. Update 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified their reasoning for separating qualia from consciousness for this market's resolution: The goal is to avoid having to adjudicate any particular definition of consciousness. An entity can be considered unconscious (e.g., during sleep or ego death) but still experience sensations like color or sound in a dream. This would count as qualia for resolution purposes.
