Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
As of 18:02 UTC on 25 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?” at 40%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.
Here is the market in question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory)I've tried to make it clear that I'm only going to resolve it once there's overwhelming evidence in one direction or another, no more serious concerns about relevant evidence being hidden, I'll talk to experts, etc. That said, it still ultimately comes down to my personal opinion, and, very reasonably, some people don't feel fully comfortable trusting that on such a controversial and politically charged topic. So, after that market resolves, I'll post a poll about whether Manifold users agree with the decision. (Alt accounts are ignored, and moderators count for 5x the votes of others. I don't get a vote myself.) If at least 10% of the vote disagrees, this market resolves YES. I will be trying to make sure that votes are an accurate representation of that user's beliefs, so as to avoid trolls who vote dishonestly.
