What is the current probability for "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?"?

"YES" is currently 32% (+6pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2040.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

manifold

Where did COVID-19 come from

Transfer at a wet market53¢· 0.0ppAccidental transfer in a lab after research gain-of-function modifications38¢· 0.0ppAccidental transfer in a lab with no modifications4¢· 0.0pp

+7 others

M0 24h · 10 markets

polymarket

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

yes9¢▲ 0.5pp

$19 24h · 1 market

kalshi

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

yes1¢▼ 0.1pp

$122 24h · 1 market

manifold

Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?

yes36¢· 0.0pp

M0 24h · 1 market

polymarket

Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?

yes71¢▼ 0.5pp

$0 24h · 1 market

kalshi

Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?

Angola11¢· 0.0ppNigeria14¢· 0.0ppSouth Sudan42¢· 0.0pp

+13 others

$1k 24h · 16 markets

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