Where did COVID-19 come from
As of 13:28 UTC on 5 May 2026, “Transfer at a wet market” leads “Where did COVID-19 come from” on Manifold at 53%, followed by “Accidental transfer in a lab after research gain-of-function modifications” at 38% and “Accidental transfer in a lab with no modifications” at 4%, out of 10 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolves in the same way as @/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on "In the wild": Refers to any location not listed in other options. Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed specific scenarios that would fall under a non-zoonotic origin (which users in the thread associated with a lab origin). These scenarios include if the pandemic virus: Was created from scratch. Originated from a virus that was previously sampled from humans (and subsequently became the source of the pandemic, e.g., through a lab-related pathway). Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified how to select this market's resolution option when the outcome from the dependent market (@/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory) could fit multiple options in this market: The more specific option available in this market will take precedence. For example, lab-specific zoonotic options are considered more specific and would be chosen over broader categories they might also belong to.
