Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
As of 08:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?” at 24%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases. P(doom|something else) is not P(doom). He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES. Same as this market, but 50% and 2040 (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla)