Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

·Science and Technology

12%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M10k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 2, 2028

Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases. P(doom|something else) is not P(doom). He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.