Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030. Decision criteria: Go to Google Trends and search for 'Eliezer Yudkowsky'. Set the search window from 2004 to present. Set the area to be 'United States.' If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES. If Yudkowsky has been turned into paperclips by 2030 by an AI, claim resolves as NO on grounds of his martyrdom. [If Google Trends ceases to exist by 2030, I will use the same algorithm on an equivalent service if it exists. If there is no equivalent service, then I will use my best judgment.] [Modification to decision criteria: Google Trends doesn't seem like a reliable way to decide this. I'm selling all of my shares and opting out of this market because the decision criteria are going to become a whole lot more subjective. I will decide this and explain my judgment in 2029. For reference, in Spring of 2023 I think Yud was very influential and his ideas were relevant. In Spring of 2024 I think he's on the edge of irrelevance. As I write this, this market is trading at 7% -- which is way, way, way too low, because most semi-famous or influential people become irrelevant over any 7 year period.] [link preview]
