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Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Manifold·Politics
Canada

As of 01:27 UTC on 8 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?” at 10% (-8pp in 24h). The market has M$6.7k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold.

10%
▼ 8.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M13.4k
vol 24h
M6.7k
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 31, 2029
YES 10¢
NO 90¢

The Canadian province of Quebec has held two referenda on independence, one in 1980 which failed with 59.6% voting no, and one in 1995 which failed by a razor-thin margin of 0.6%. Canada enacted the Clarity Act in 1999 in response to the ambiguous wording of past referenda. The act grants the House of Commons the power to decide if an independence referendum question is worded clearly enough to proceed to a vote, among other stipulations. Will Quebec hold another referendum on independence before the end of this decade?

canadian-politicspolitics-defaultworld-defaultcanadacollective-autonomy
timeline
opened · Oct 7, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2029
Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029? · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · 24h windows
no volume history

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