Question 1

What is the current probability for "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at some point in their life?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at some point in their life?" are Nigel Farage 26%, Robert Jenrick 24%, Angela Rayner 21% — 2 of 62 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 9/9/9999.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/1jZB1heQvtkk6RqvhpeC. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at some point in their life?

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