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IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Manifold·Science and Technology
36%
vol cum
M3.2k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 2, 2027
YES 36¢
NO 64¢

This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing. If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A. This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets. Inspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364 Related markets: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e [link preview]

timeline
opened · Jul 31, 2023opencloses · Jan 2, 2027
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] · prices over time
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