Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
As of 18:38 UTC on 3 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?” at 52%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.
Suggested resolution critera. This market resolves "Yes" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine is in control of any territory in Crimea. This market resolves "No" if, according to the Institute for Study War, Ukraine has control of 80% of either Luhansk or Donetsk Oblasts. This market resolves "Ambiguous" if neither happens or if there is a nuclear strike prior to either happening. Oct 8, 3:22pm: Will Ukraine invade Crimea before it takes back Luhansk or Donetsk? → Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk? Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:01 am
