Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee, and will he win?
As of 14:56 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, “Is not nominee, doesn't win” leads “Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee, and will he win?” on Manifold at 84% (+2pp in 24h), followed by “Is nominee, does win” at 9% (-1pp in 24h) and “Is nominee, doesn't win” at 7%, out of 4 outcomes. The event has M$507 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
Seeking to more clearly establish Newsom's conditional odds of winning the 2028 presidential election, rather than having to aggregate multiple markets. By "nominee" I mean for the Democratic Party, at the time of the election. (So for example if he's the democratic nominee but then he dies or drops out before election day, that's "not the nominee". Or if he's the nominee for any other party, that's also "not the nominee".) I will bet in this market Update 2025-09-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Wins criterion: I will defer to and match the resolution of @Tetraspace's market (@/Tetraspace/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20) on who is elected president, including in disputed/contested scenarios.
