What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?"?

"YES" is currently 3% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 2, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/5M2I0YYBYCstkwDI3yDK. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

·Science and Technology

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M87.8k

vol 24h

M10k

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 2, 2027

YES 3¢

NO 97¢

Will OpenAI make a deal to pay a major science publisher such as Elsevier for explicit access / training rights on their papers, before the end of 2025? Closes at end of 2026 to allow for a one-year lag in when we learn about it. Resolves YES if such a deal has already taken place. Vide this minor difference of guesses between myself (Yudkowsky) and Sabine Hossenfelder.

openaiai

timeline

opened · Jun 11, 2024opencloses · Jan 2, 2027

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025? · prices over time

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