Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 17:04 UTC on 26 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?” at 8%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

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Dec 31, 2039

Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba)