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Will Anthropic Annual Recurring Revenue be under $90bn end of 2026?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:35 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Anthropic Annual Recurring Revenue be under $90bn end of 2026?” at 27%. The market has M$5 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.

27%

▼ 0.1pp

24h change

vol cum

M22.5k

vol 24h

M5

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2026

YES 27¢

NO 73¢

Resolves according to this bet YES = UNDER 90bn [tweet]

timeline

opened · Apr 7, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

Will Anthropic Annual Recurring Revenue be under $90bn end of 2026? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history

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suggested by pdata

Polymarket

What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026?

↑ $2581¢▲ 7.5pp↑ $3068¢▲ 5.0pp↑ $5060¢· 0.0pp

$137 24h · 6 markets

Manifold

Will Anthropic become profitable this year?

M0 24h · 1 market

Kalshi

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 22, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 34.5%43¢▲ 2.0ppAbove 35.2%38¢· 0.0ppAbove 32.4%57¢▼ 16.0pp

$403 24h · 9 markets

Polymarket

Anthropic’s valuation end of November 2026?

$500-$750B57¢▲ 6.0pp<$500B53¢▲ 2.0pp$2.25T+37¢▲ 2.0pp

$560 24h · 9 markets

Manifold

Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?

Alec Radford14¢· 0.0ppNadia Asparouhova14¢· 0.0ppNan Ransohoff12¢· 0.0pp

M0 24h · 12 markets

Kalshi

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 24, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 42.8%3¢▲ 3.0ppAbove 30.7%0¢· 0.0ppAbove 32.9%0¢· 0.0pp

$3 24h · 9 markets