When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2029.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/9re3xe1soLUwdOEudDno. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

↗

event9 outcomes

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Q: What is the current probability for "Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?": Scott Wiener 52%, Connie Chan 47%, Other 0% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2029

vol cum

M1.2M

vol 24h

M15.3k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2029

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 9

Resolves to whoever is next elected to the office, other than Nancy Pelosi, regardless if they are ever seated. Includes special elections. Expires before the next redisticting cycle; will be resolved N/A if no one wins the seat other than Pelosi by market close time.

sf-politicssan-francisco118th-congressus-politics

marketselected outcome

Scott Wiener

rank #1

United States

52¢

▼ 14.4pp

24h change

vol cum

M323.1k

vol 24h

spread