What is the current probability for "Who will be the next Speaker of the House?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Who will be the next Speaker of the House?": Hakeem Jeffries 86%, Other 10%, Tom Emmer 1% (top 3 of 11 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/8/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/Gn1tVYStxyonsavJ1vRs. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

↗

event11 outcomes

Who will be the next Speaker of the House?

·Politics·ends Jan 8, 2027

vol cum

M20.2k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Jan 8, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

Mike Johnson was elected as the Speaker of the House today (October 15th). Who will be the next Speaker? Answer must be the full name of one individual. Any options added that are duplicates or too broad will be ignored. A new Speaker pro tempore would not count.

magalandspeaker-of-the-house-electionus-congressus-politicspolitics-default

marketselected outcome

Hakeem Jeffries

rank #1

United States

86¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M1.8k

vol 24h

spread