Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?
As of 19:55 UTC on 21 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?” at 73%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Background: P versus NP problem "AI resolved" means a machine learning system or a human researcher constructively aided by AI/ML techniques* proves P=NP or P != NP or some exotic outcome (such as P vs NP being independent of ZFC) for the first time before the start of 2050.** *The AI must "come up with" a key part of the proof. If a human researcher has a unique or critical insight that leads to a proof but that proof is subsequently verified or confirmed using AI plus an automated proof system, that by itself would not count. This distinction is obviously a little fuzzy and subjective, but I will do my best to hold true to the spirit of the question... ** If a human researcher resolves the problem without AI, but an AI later discovers a related or different proof, this market will still resolve NO.
