Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?
Recent polling suggests that the decline in religious affiliation in the US has stagnated. Will that trend reverse in the coming years? Resolves based on: Poll: Gallup--What is your religious preference — are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, another religion or no religion? (see https://news.gallup.com/poll/1690/religion.aspx) Criteria: If the average Christian affiliation from 2026 through 2031, rounded to the nearest whole number, is larger than the average Christian affiliation from 2021 through 2025, then the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. The average from 2021 - 2025 is 66%. Christian affiliation: The sum of the Protestant, Christian (nonspecific), and Catholic categories. -All Nicene Christian groups, those that hold to the Nicene creed, are included, so if Gallup adds another category in the future (e.g., Eastern Orthodoxy, Oriental Orthodoxy, etc.), they will be counted. Non-Nicene groups, like Mormons, are not counted. Resolution occurs after the final polling data (from 2030) is published by Gallup. Resolves N/A if the poll is discontinued or at least one year is skipped.
