Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
As of 17:49 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?” at 11%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Predict, Polymarket and Kalshi.
There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism. This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).
