Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?

Manifold·Other

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?” at 4%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

Anything highly credible, such as what happened with SBF. Doesn't need to be legally charged. This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.