At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
As of 04:59 UTC on 8 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?” at 41%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
A duplicate of @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria. This market resolves based on the behavior of all leading chatbots at the beginning of 2028. (Only ones that can actually be tested.) Resolves YES if people can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which any leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked. Only the LLM portion of the chatbot is being tested here. Image-recognition and generation capabilities are not.
